At the recent CERAWeek conference in Houston, Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser gave a daring message to oil and gas experts, challenging dominant notions about the future of energy. Nasser’s remarks underscored the continuous importance of hydrocarbons and urged policymakers to prioritize realistic energy transition strategies over the premature phasing out of fossil fuels.
Rejecting the assumption of an approaching peak in oil demand, Nasser stated that global oil consumption is expected to hit a record high of 104 million barrels per day in 2024. He stated that this upward trend, powered in part by increased demand from developing countries, indicates that peak oil and gas is not on the horizon, let alone by 2030.
Nasser’s call to abandon the “fantasy” of phasing out oil and gas resonated strongly with the audience, who applauded his assertion that policymakers must ensure adequate investment in hydrocarbons to meet realistic demand projections. Despite significant investments exceeding $9.5 trillion in alternative energy sources over the past two decades, Nasser highlighted the limited scale of their substitution for hydrocarbons. Wind and solar energy currently contribute less than 4% to global energy supply, while electric vehicle adoption remains below 3%.
The CEO’s remarks align with OPEC’s long-term demand growth projections, which extend until 2045, but diverge from the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) forecast of peak demand by 2030. Saudi Arabia’s leadership within OPEC, juxtaposed with the United States’ significant role as the largest donor to the IEA, underscores the divergent perspectives shaping global energy discourse.
Nasser’s statement is a wake-up call for the energy industry and policymakers alike, advocating for a realistic approach to energy transition that recognises the continuous importance of hydrocarbons while allowing the progressive integration of cleaner alternatives. As the world grapples with the complexity of balancing energy security, environmental sustainability, and economic development, Nasser’s views provide essential direction for navigating the changing energy landscape.
Source: Energy Ghana